Going viral

What if this coronavirus is the pandemic that public health people have been warning about for years?

It would accelerate many pre-existing trends.

- border closures
- nationalism
- social isolation
- preppers
- remote work
- face masks
- distrust in governments

The primary sources I have been following on the coronavirus are:

1) Lancet: http://thelancet.com/coronavirus 
2) NEJM: http://nejm.org/coronavirus 
3) JHU: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

My credentials, if relevant: PhD with papers in microbial and clinical genomics.

The JHU dashboard is concerning.

1) Exponential growth of cases inside and outside China
2) Non-China graph seems much lower, but is "only" about 2-3 weeks behind at same rate
3) Data updates ~every night, so apparent slowdown in cases may not be real
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Countries are closing their borders and stopping flights, including Russia, Mongolia, Germany. There are calls in HK, Philippines, and now the US to follow suit.

This may be the event that swings 10-20% of the middle reluctantly towards border controls.

For a virus like this, the time to "overreact" is now, before it becomes pandemic.

However, some folks in the US media are acting just like the Chinese state media they claim to deplore -- and minimizing the issue.

Don't panic, do take decisive action.
http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/

Longer term trend: decentralized medicine

Crowding many contagious people into a single hospital may not be the right approach. Healthcare workers themselves are getting sick.

Instead, portable diagnostics and mobile ICUs may be better to invest in.

Long term trend: face masks

When SV & China both agree on something, it often happens. Face masks are on the rise due to infection & pollution. Privacy is a third driver.

Every American man used to wear a hat. Perhaps everyone wears a face mask soon. https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1222178953378631681

Long term trend: remote work

Today, only a subset of jobs are feasible with remote work. But if there's a highly contagious and possibly deadly disease out there, that changes everything.

With robotics & telepresence, a much larger percentage of jobs could become teleoperated.

Medium term trend: 180 reversals

If another country has an outbreak as bad as China's, some trends may be arrested & reversed, at least in the short run. Tinder would fall. Perhaps Uber & Airbnb too. Digital nomadism as well.

Anything related to travel and meeting strangers.

Long term axis: land vs cloud

If it became pandemic, this virus would accelerate nationalism (border controls, caution vs strangers) and technology (remote work, VR, decentralized diagnostics). And accelerate the fall of the pre-2016 consensus.

See here:
http://tweetstorm.io/user/balajis/703514805311655936

A important issue is reducing the huge costs (in time, risk, money) of vaccine development.

The left should put aside the pitchforks for big pharma for a second

And the right should get comfortable with large appropriations bills for vaccines (the govt!) https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1222203496855998472

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/health/coronavirus-vaccine.html

We can't ask folks to bankrupt themselves for an uncertain outcome. We should at least defray their costs. And celebrate the inventors, like Jonas Salk.

It's like conscription. The public may well need vaccine development, but need to at least pay for it

Long term trend: face masks++?

I'm not sure whether this would ever catch on. But in the event there is a permanent social resetting, you could imagine clothes like this becoming more standard with built-in N95 masks or the equivalent.
https://gearnova.com/vollebak-relaxation-hoodie-covers-your-face/

Btw, this does seem weird. But:

1) Designer face masks popular in Asia for a while
2) Came to the US with Napa fires
3) New reports indicate virus can be passed through eyes
4) Burkas also popular in parts of world

Put those together, and may get full facial cover as standard.

Something else to keep in mind: even if this does go pandemic, post-apocalyptic movies aren't a great mental model.

There are many shades of gray between "everything works" and "Mad Max".

The biggest societal adaptation would be reducing non-obligate contact with strangers.

There’s a scenario where remote work is in demand to such an extent that in-person jobs receive a salary premium. Almost like hazard pay.

BLS has a list of the most common US jobs. What percent can be done remote? Or via kiosk, robot, teleoperation?
https://thestacker.com/stories/3487/most-common-jobs-america