1/ Thoughts on $NFLX's domestic strategy (not the stock). They need to mix it up. The last ~10 years represented open-ended growth where 1 plan/1 price made sense. Now they should investigate 1) price discrimination 2) varied show release cadence 3) more platform plays.
2/ In @stratechery's prior articles/podcast ( @exponentfm), @benthompson described early iPhone growth as very singularly focused. One new iPhone every year at the same price. Smartphone unit growth was just there for the taking so there was nothing else to do.
3/ Eventually Apple started offering more SKUs with different price points and this made sense given that the market was more saturated. Now they are trying to sell more into the existing customer base (wearables, Services).
4/ I think Netflix should do something similar. In the US, sub count has clearly slowed. NFLX had ~61mn paid subs in 2019 and added ~2.8mn subs vs. 5.8mn in 2018. With ~125mn US households, I think slowing sub growth is a given (even w/o competition).
5/ I would argue at this stage of their life, at least in the US, Netflix has to change things up. A few suggestions (maybe you have some better ones).
6/
1) Start airing tent pole shows on a weekly basis. This is the most important suggestion, though maybe not as relevant to my iPhone analogy. For tent pole content like Stranger Things, or maybe The Witcher, go back to TV’s weekly airing of new episodes.
7/ This allows for free media buzz, water cooler talk, etc. A cynic would say it elongates subscriber duration. I get Netflix’s strategy here. In a purely rational world where humans are robots, releasing content all at once is 100% the right thing to do, but humans aren’t robots
8/ and in an odd way, you can actually argue that Netflix would be increasing subscriber utility by giving them LESS choice. For example, when GoT was aired, I used to listen to BaldMove podcast which gave me 5 hrs of addtl content /week. For The Witcher, they did a 1 hr podcast
9/
2) Offer 3rd party content. Netflix has some great insight into shows/movies that people search for that aren’t on Netflix. Copy Amazon Prime Video And offer these shows to buy or subscribe to other services (like Prime).
10/
a) It’s free money and Netflix has the biggest sub base.
b) Netflix gets more data on what people watch.
c) It keeps users on the App. I can keep ALL my content on there and not have to hop over to iTunes or Google Play or Amazon Prime Video.
11/
3) Innovate on Pricing plans. Maybe think about switching up price. Right now Netflix does have a few price tiers but I would argue it’s not enough (Basic – one device SD; Standard Plan 2 devices HD; Premium Plan 4 devices UHD).
12/ I know there is a lot of password sharing, so maybe switch it up to a basic rate for the first individual in a group, say $10, then $3-4 for each additional person. I’m sure there is something more creative one could do here,
13/ but the revenue equation for Netflix domestic is not exciting today if the growth in Q is small, and needs to be pulled along just by Price increases.
14/ Other things I’ve seen kicked around are 1) offer a free plan with advertising and 2) live sports. I don’t think either make sense.
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