Right new predictions for 2020....British politics first:

1. Starmer will win the Labour leadership. The membership is way to the left of where it use to be but doesn't function as a bloc hard left vote and Starmer is popular for his remain stance.

2. Deputy leader is very hard to call but assuming she stands I'd have thought Rayner would have a very good chance.

3. Lib Dem leadership will be between Ed Davey and Layla Moran and the former will probably win.

(If I'm right all main Parliamentary party leaders - including SNP - will be white middle aged men again).

4. Barring any as yet unknown (and spectacular) scandal Boris Johnson will be unassailable and Dom Cummings will remain in No 10 driving the policy agenda (but with increasing tension between him and the "sensibles" like Eddie Lister).

5. There'll be some manufactured drama about the next "no deal" cliff edge in Dec 2020 but ultimately not having a deal of some sort (even if it's one that involves short-term patching or delays) is in everyone's interest.

6. Johnson won't grant a Scottish referendum and I don't think the SNP will try anything like a Catalonian illegal ref. It will just keep bubbling up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections.

7. In the US Trump's impeachment will not be ratified by the Senate and he will be the GOP candidate for 2020.

8. Dem candidate is hard to call. All the remaining candidates polling well have fairly major flaws. I suspect Biden will do it - but that would mean a contest between two old men in their 70s undergoing fairly obvious mental decline.

9. If Biden does win the nomination he would be favourite to beat Trump based on current data. If it's Buttigieg; Warren or Sanders then I think Trump would be favourite to do a 2nd term. Either way it will be close and come down to the same group of states as last time.

OK. Let's see how those ones fair!

(Number 5 should say "having a deal" rather than "not having a deal"! Quite important distinction that....)

Please note I made the first prediction in this thread before seeing this poll https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1212493703878606849?s=19