OK, we're doing this!

Here's how we know Jesus was born on December 25 ...
The Scriptural evidence:

Zechariah was in the priestly course of Abijah. Thus he served in the temple in the 8th & 32nd week of the year.

Luke's Gospel has him serving on the Day of Atonement (end of September) & conceiving John the Baptist right when he got home.
This places John's birth in late June.

The Catholic Church has traditionally celebrated the Nativity of John the Baptist on June 24, which fits Luke's time line perfectly.
The Protoevangelium of James flat out confirms St. John's late September conception.

Sure, it's apocryphal, but that doesn't disqualify it as a source of historical data.
You can probably see where I'm going with this.

Luke clearly states that Jesus was conceived when Elizabeth was six months pregnant with John.

Scriptural, traditional, and historical evidence place John's birth in late June. Adding 6 months puts Jesus' birth in late December.
This is nothing new, either. The Church Fathers knew the evidence & reached the same conclusion.

St. John Chrysostom preached his famous Christmas Morning Homily on December 25, 388.

Read it! https://blogs.ancientfaith.com/glory2godforallthings/2008/12/23/st-john-chrysostoms-christmas-homily/
St. Hippolytus, who died in AD 235, wrote,

"The first advent of Our Lord in the flesh occurred when He was born in Bethlehem on December 25."
But the tradition goes back even further than that!

St. Theophilus, d. AD 181, wrote:

"We ought to celebrate the birthday of Our Lord on what day soever the 25th of December shall happen."
There you have it. The Bible, eyewitnesses to Jesus' ministry who knew & loved Him--including His mother--and His Apostles' early successors, give strong testimony that Jesus really was born on December 25.
There are really only 3 objections to affirming December 25 as the actual date of Christ's birth. I'll answer them in turn.
Objection 1: Luke has shepherds tending their sheep on the night of Jesus' birth, but shepherds don't graze their flocks in winter.

Answer: Bethlehem has a similar climate to Houston. You'll find sheep out in the pasture in both places year-round.

Israel in December:
Objection 2: The Church "baptized" Saturnalia, an ancient Roman feast, by setting the celebration of Christmas to the same date.

Answer: Saturnalia was held on the Winter Solstice, b/w 12-17 & 12-23. The dates simply don't match. Close only counts in horseshoes & hand grenades.
Objection 2: OK, if not Saturnalia, then Sol Invictus.

Answer: The Emperor Aurelian did decree the feast of SI in 274, prior to the 1st documented 12/25 Xmas in 336. But there's no record of SI's celebration on 12/25 until 354, when Julian the Apostate moved it to flex on Xians.
TL; DR: Scripture, tradition, & history attest to December 25 as Christ's actual birthday. Pagans got nothin'. Merry Christmas!
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