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Some thoughts re Australia's late-2019 collision of politics & climate change. (With citations!) #AustraliaBurns
Australia is one of the highest per capita emitters of GHGs ( https://www.nature.com/articles/srep20281) & a laggard on climate policy among G20 nations ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151830750X). Uncontroversial but relevant for context.
Australia is second only to the US in terms of how social attitudes toward climate change map across the left-right political spectrum ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0157-2).
And we have seen the term of a number of PMships come to an end due to politics of climate policy ( https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.458).
(Not to mention the power of resource-rich groups that have sought to intervene in climate policies in order to protect their interests; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361146.2013.821101 & https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361146.2015.1126043)
This tells us politics and climate change are deeply entangled in Australia. But, there have been shifts - 
dramatic shifts - in public opinion in recent years.
dramatic shifts - in public opinion in recent years.
ABC Vote Compass, @TheAusInstitute & @LowyInstitute polling all bears this out. Lowy poll in particular - running for over a decade - shows in 2019 61% of Aussies want immediate action on CC, in 2012 this figure was at its lowest: 36%. Big change!
( https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-15/federal-election-vote-compass-climate-change/11110912 & https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Climate%20of%20the%20Nation%202019%20%5BWEB%5D_0.pdf & https://www.lowyinstitute.org/sites/default/files/lowyinsitutepoll-2019.pdf)
New groups and spokespeople have stepped into the discourse, e.g. @farmingforever & @IGCC_Update . Having messengers who are not from the usual suspects we know is critical to extending reach of an issue from its supporter base ( https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2019.1630463).
So, here's a thought:
In general terms, the role of climate policy in ending past PMships has been due to broad resistance to ambitious emissions reductions.
Might this be re-orienting now such that the climate politics rule has inverted?
In general terms, the role of climate policy in ending past PMships has been due to broad resistance to ambitious emissions reductions.
Might this be re-orienting now such that the climate politics rule has inverted?
Something to watch is the discourses amplified by the media as #AustraliaBurns. E.g. analysis of the media coverage of the Black Saturday fires in 2009 showed the depth of ideological opposition to climate action ( https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17524032.2018.1424008).
My anecdotal media scanning points to large differences in coverage of #AustralianFires and its intersection w politics & climate across the media corporations. Which narratives will resonate & hold?
News media is just one influence on public opinion, though. US research shows conversations w friends & family are highly influential in promoting positive feedback loop between understanding and action ( https://www.pnas.org/content/116/30/14804).
So we can think about how we talk about #climatechange with those we're close to. Check out the new, useful guide on productive discussions from @ClimateOutreach ( https://climateoutreach.org/resources/how-to-have-a-climate-change-conversation-talking-climate/).
Will 2020 be the year Australia sees clearly (had to say it) & holds power to account on climate action?
