Read on Twitter
Looks like I'm officially winning my 4th title in 13 years in my oldest dynasty league.
In honor of the win, here are some of the trades I've ever made along the way.
In honor of the win, here are some of the trades I've ever made along the way.
In 2011, I traded A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and change for Maurice Jones-Drew and a 2012 1st.
MJD had one more season as a fantasy starter. The pick wound up 1.05 and was eventually used on Justin Blackmon.
MJD had one more season as a fantasy starter. The pick wound up 1.05 and was eventually used on Justin Blackmon.
In October 2012, I gave Brandon Marshall and a first for Percy Harvin.
Harvin got hurt 4 weeks later, then traded to Seattle. You know the rest. Brandon Marshall had three more top-10 seasons. The first became Cordarrelle Patterson.
Harvin got hurt 4 weeks later, then traded to Seattle. You know the rest. Brandon Marshall had three more top-10 seasons. The first became Cordarrelle Patterson.
In 2014, I traded Demaryius Thomas, 1.04, 1.05, and a 2015 2nd for Calvin and a 2015 1st.
Demaryius outgained Calvin by 700 yards in the next two years. Calvin retired. 1.04/1.05 became Sankey and Hyde (though I'd have taken OBJ).
At least the 2015 1st became Amari Cooper.
Demaryius outgained Calvin by 700 yards in the next two years. Calvin retired. 1.04/1.05 became Sankey and Hyde (though I'd have taken OBJ).
At least the 2015 1st became Amari Cooper.
In 2015, I gave Drew Brees, Julio Jones, Todd Gurley, and a 2016 1st for Andrew Luck and DeAndre Hopkins. League is very QB-friendly and I was hoping to secure my future at the position.
Brees is still playing. Luck is retired. Other guy won 3 of the next 4 titles.
Brees is still playing. Luck is retired. Other guy won 3 of the next 4 titles.
In 2016, I traded picks 1.05 and 2.06 for Demaryius Thomas.
Thomas only had 1083/5 receiving that year and has never topped either mark since. 1.05 was used on Derrick Henry.
Thomas only had 1083/5 receiving that year and has never topped either mark since. 1.05 was used on Derrick Henry.
Before 2017 I really needed a running back so I traded DeAndre Hopkins for Jordan Howard. I blame @MikeClayNFL.
(This arguably shouldn't make the list. The full trade was Hopkins, Corey Coleman, Powell, and Blount for Howard, Demaryius, 2.08, 3.01. Like the Bears, I took Trubisky over Watson/Mahomes, but was able to move him for a profit. And the 2.08 became James Conner.)
(Also, your eyes aren't deceiving you, I have traded both DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas an awful lot of times over the years.)
(Actually, I take it back on getting good value for Trubisky. I packaged him with a future 2nd for a future 1st, but then used that future first to do this:)
Before 2017, I traded a 2018 first for Marcus Mariota. (Again: QB-friendly league.)
That first became D.J. Moore.
Before 2017, I traded a 2018 first for Marcus Mariota. (Again: QB-friendly league.)
That first became D.J. Moore.
Finally, this offseason I wanted to convert some WR depth into RB depth, so I traded Chris Godwin for Sony Michel.
I can't even blame Clay for that one. That was all me.
I can't even blame Clay for that one. That was all me.
This list doesn't even include any of the garden-variety bad trades I've made, ones where I got some decent value but gave up slightly more value to get it, or ones where both sides wound up being awful but my side was slightly more awful.
This is just the total catastrophes.
This is just the total catastrophes.
Now, remember, despite making all of these trades I *won* this year's title, my fourth overall and third since 2011 (time span covered). Here's how my team has finished in points, wins, potential points, and expected wins in that span. I've secured a bye in 7 of the last 9 years.
"Maybe he's just drafted really well to make up for it".
I start 7 players a week, times 16 weeks, which means I've had 112 player-starts this year.
Four of them went to someone I drafted. T.J. Hockenson twice, Noah Fant and Ronald Jones once each.
I start 7 players a week, times 16 weeks, which means I've had 112 player-starts this year.
Four of them went to someone I drafted. T.J. Hockenson twice, Noah Fant and Ronald Jones once each.
My winning roster was Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, and George Kittle. Every single one of them acquired via trade.
I often say that if you win every trade you probably aren't trading enough. This is what that looks like in practice.
Even if you're a very, very good trader, you're going to have some absolute catastrophes. But *IF YOU'RE GOOD*, the wins will eventually outweigh the losses.
Even if you're a very, very good trader, you're going to have some absolute catastrophes. But *IF YOU'RE GOOD*, the wins will eventually outweigh the losses.
*IF YOU'RE BAD* and you trade at high volume you're going to completely destroy your roster in short order. Hell, even if you're good that's always a risk.
I'm 100% not saying that trading is an unalloyed good and you should trade just to trade.
I'm 100% not saying that trading is an unalloyed good and you should trade just to trade.
I'm just saying that you shouldn't let the fear of losing a trade hold you back if you think the value is there.
If you trade, you're going to lose some. And you'll remember every single one of those trades you lose. They'll haunt you forever.
Do it anyway.
If you trade, you're going to lose some. And you'll remember every single one of those trades you lose. They'll haunt you forever.
Do it anyway.
Follow-up. I tend to be a buy-high / sell-high trader. I pay premium prices to get premium assets.
Here's a list of the valuable (at the time) pieces I've given up since 2011 (when I really started trading at volume). Doesn't include all the filler and throw-ins.
Here's a list of the valuable (at the time) pieces I've given up since 2011 (when I really started trading at volume). Doesn't include all the filler and throw-ins.
Evolution of a roster in action. Here's what my team looked like at the beginning of 2018:
https://twitter.com/AdamHarstad/status/1037190569120935939
Here's what it looked like at the end of 2018:
https://twitter.com/AdamHarstad/status/1069362073581297665
And here's what it looked like at the beginning and end of this year:
https://twitter.com/AdamHarstad/status/1037190569120935939
Here's what it looked like at the end of 2018:
https://twitter.com/AdamHarstad/status/1069362073581297665
And here's what it looked like at the beginning and end of this year:
(I moved Saquon Barkley from the "Drafted" to "Traded for" column between 2018 and 2019 because I think philosophically it's a better fit. There's a difference between trading for picks without a specific target and trading for on-the-clock picks to grab a specific player IMO.)
