My view on Modi's strategy to counter economic slowdown -
If India is to become Global Power & able to compete with US & China, we need to grow at Nominal GDP growth rate of 12%+ for next 10 years. Then only we can become a Middle Income Country & compete with Global Powers.
For that to happen, we need many serious structural reforms. Modi's 1st term was more about Socialist economic policies. Except GST (though with problems), IBC & major Infra Boost, all Modi's policies were Leftist in nature like Mudra, Toilets, Housing, Ayushyaman & PMKisan.
But by nature, Modi is a free market capitalist. When he was CM, He used to Openely say "PSU ka janam marne ke liye hi hota hai". He came as talking capitalist. But he walked Socialism in his 1st term. But with the benefit of Hindsight, I can say his 1st term was for ensuring
He would return to power for 2nd term. Modi knows that Public Mindset is Socialist in nature. Public looks at reforms with Suspicion. You can Save BPCL, Save Air India hashtags. Also, look at opposition to Bullet Train. Due to lack of basic economic awareness, Layman public
Opposes Privatization, FDI, etc. Modi learnt from Vajapayee's Mistakes. He saved BJP & nation from 2004 like situation in 2019 & with Socialist policies, he concentrated on creating a permanent BJP Votebank. Beneficiaries of his Socialist schemes are now permanent voters of BJP
Those voters now will not get affected by opposition's propaganda atleast for next 10 years. But in 2nd term, Modi has set target of $5 tnl GDP by 2025 & $10tnl GDP by 2030. That means Nominal GDP growth rate of 14%+ (assuming Inflation to remain < 6% & no change in ExchangeRate)
For that to happen, we need a major shift towards Free Market Capitalism. Until the decision of Corporate Tax cut & Pvtzn of BPCL & Air India, there was no hope of achieving it. But now it seems Modi govt is willing to bite the bullet. Now, following reforms must follow -
1. Denationalisation of PSBs - Reduce govt stake in Public Sector Banks except SBI to 30%. Many expert committee reports have suggested this since 1997. Yashwant Sinha & Chidambaram both had said on some occasions that we would like to do it but we don't have majority to do it.
2. Privatization of all non strategic PSUs. It's not the business of Govt to do business. There is a saying in Hindi - 'Jaha Raja Vyapari, waha Praja Bheekari'. It's better to get rid of this White elephants.
3. Land Acquisition Reforms which Modi tried initially in 2014, but
he abandoned it after Opposition remark of Suit Boot ki Sarkar & defeat in delhi & Bihar assembly in 2015.
4. Labour Reforms with Hire & Fire Policy.
5. Agricultural Reforms i.e. Freeing up Agro markets by Scrapping APMCs.
6. Direct Tax Code. By cutting Corporate Tax, supply side
boost is given. Now we need to cut Personal Income tax rates to give Demand Side Boost. DTC will take care of it.
7. Simplification of GST procedures(60% work pending) & rationalization of GST rates.
8. Free Trade Agreements with business friendly countries to Boost exports.
9. Additional Major Boost to Infrastructure.
10. Judicial Reforms. Etc
Solutions are not new. But implementation is the problem. All these solutions are perceived as Anti Farmers, anti Common man, anti small businesses. People call it as Selling the nation to rich people etc.
Most reformist PMs PVNR & ABV lost Elections in spite of producing Good Economy for the very reason. PVNR was also accused of Selling the nation at that time. Everyone knows this needs to be done but politicians are afraid to do this because of fear of Public Backlash.
But Modi had set target. So, he needs to do it. He needs to sell idea of Reforms to the nation. He needs to convince public that this needs to be done. He did it for DeMo. Same way he can do it for this. He enjoys very high approval ratings & credibility. He can & should do it.
Why Modi scrapped article 370 immediately after coming to Power & why not in 2023? Why all this Ram Mandir, UCC, NRC, CAB, Population control in 1st year? All these issues could have been dealt with year before elections to win 2024. But these issues are taken up now because
these issues generate much needed political capital. Due to this issue, Public won't overreact to Reforms. Political Fallouts of Reforms will be very low due to political capital generated through these emotional issues. Modi is smart. He knows this. Current Modi govt is working
like a corporate where Modi will solely conectarte on Economy & reforms. & Amit Shah will deal with emotional issues & generate political capital. To sell the idea of Reforms, u need to have a crisis. Without crisis, u can't sell reforms to voters. That's why Modi is silent &
letting crisis aggravate so that he can sell all these reforms in the name of Solving Crisis. IMHO, present crisis is a self inflicted crisis by Modi govt to justify all these reforms. Modi is deliberately taking criticism on economy & letting people say He doesn't understand
Economics & troll, make fun of his govt. But he has a backup plan & blueprint of Reforms with him. He has dedicated team for that. Members of that team may not be official. IMO, A. Pangariya, A, Virmani, Jagdish Bhagwati, Surjit Bhalla are working for Modi behind the curtains.
I feel/hope that Modi govt is doing Soviet scorched Earth tactic abt Indian economy. In WW2, Soviet Union went on a massive retreat for almost 4 months & conceded huge swaths of Soviet territory to Wehrmacht. While retreating, Soviet Union burned down their own crops, houses,
shelters, Factories, railway lines, basically literally everything. So, the supply line was impossible to maintain from Berlin to Kursk, & then once Winter came, Wehrmacht was halted in mud & snow, at that very moment, Stalin started the Winter offensive & turned the tide of war.
IMO, same will happen with Indian Economy. & Atleast from Q1 of 2020-21, we will see beginning of Free Market Capitalism in India because of not having a Choice. That's why Modi is letting Economy collapse & I guess it will continue till this month. So, we can expect another
8 November like PMs address to Nation in coming days. The last date upto which atleast some of such reforms should be announced is 1st Feb 2020 - the Budget day if we are become $5 tnl economy by 2025. IMO, Modi should annouce Denationalisation of Banks along with other measures
On 23rd December 2019 - Death Anniversary of PVNR as a tribute to Him along with announcing Bharatratna for PVNR. Just like Modi has hijacked legacy Gandhi & Sardar Patel from Cong, he should also Hijack legacy of PVNR from Cong. So, my dear fellow Indians, expect some big bang
Economic reforms on or before 1st Feb 2020. There will be lot of hue & cry from Communist Labour Unions, trade unions, bank unions, farmers unions etc. They may hit the street with Bandhs, Morchas etc. But my request to all BJP supporters to explain all such measures to ur
Relatives, friends, colleagues etc. Study about it, be articulate in explaining. Convince them. BJP will have to pay short term political cost in year 2020 & 2021. But it will generate enormous political dividends from year 2022 onwards.
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