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IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES:
“Politicians and populations need to be constantly reminded that Russia is not like them and does not wish to be like them.”- @KeirGiles at #NatoPALondon
“To look for a better Russia is to look far, far into the future.”
Thread on containing Russia.
“Politicians and populations need to be constantly reminded that Russia is not like them and does not wish to be like them.”- @KeirGiles at #NatoPALondon
“To look for a better Russia is to look far, far into the future.”
Thread on containing Russia.
1/ AN ENDURING STATE OF AFFAIRS: @KeirGiles is an author and global expert on Russia.
What follows are highlights of his urgent and critically important speech at #NatoPALondon detailing a strategy the West should employ to contain Russian aggression.
What follows are highlights of his urgent and critically important speech at #NatoPALondon detailing a strategy the West should employ to contain Russian aggression.
2/ THE LONG HAUL: The pretense of friendship between the West and Russia only occurs when Russia is in a state of weakness.
The reality, he cautions, is we must settle in for the long haul of “continuing conflict and confrontation with Russia.”
The reality, he cautions, is we must settle in for the long haul of “continuing conflict and confrontation with Russia.”
3/ HOSTILE ATTITUDE: Russia continues to demonstrate a hostile attitude to “the rules-based international order which had in the West been so long taken for granted.”
4/ HISTORICAL HOSTILITY: “Russia is returning to its historical comfort zone of hostility to the West, and its own population.”- @KeirGiles at #NatoPALondon
5/ REALITY BITES: “Assumptions that Russia was a partner to the West and shared its interests prevailed for over two decades after the end of the Cold War in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary.”
Russia’s behavior makes it clear it has different geopolitical priorities
Russia’s behavior makes it clear it has different geopolitical priorities
6/ COEXISTENCE IS POSSIBLE:
“We are not now in the Cold War; but one lesson from that period is that coexistence is possible while accepting that the strategic interests of Moscow and the West are incompatible.”- @KeirGiles
“We are not now in the Cold War; but one lesson from that period is that coexistence is possible while accepting that the strategic interests of Moscow and the West are incompatible.”- @KeirGiles
7/ RUSSIA IS NOT LIKE THE WEST: “Western policy-makers, politicians and populations need to be constantly reminded not only that Russia is not like them and does not wish to be like them—but also that other methods of dealing with Russia have been repeatedly tried and failed.”-KG
8/ ACCEPTANCE: “A willingness to accept confrontation and invest in prevailing in it is the persistently proven way of constraining Russian ambition and hostile intent.”- @KeirGiles
9/ FUNDAMENTAL CONTRADICTIONS: “Instead, we see once again efforts to reset the relationship without addressing its fundamental contradictions.”- @KeirGiles
10/ EXPLOITATION: “Let’s not forget that Russia sees concessions and compromise as weakness to be exploited.”- @KeirGiles
11/ DEEPLY SUSPICIOUS: “Cooperation and good-neighbourly relations for their own sake are not an incentive to Moscow. If they come with no evident and immediate benefit to state or leadership interests, they appear unnatural and deeply suspicious.”- @KeirGiles
12/ CONDITIONAL AND FLEETING: “There may be opportunities to cooperate with Russia in the future, but they will be conditional and fleeting. And even if common interest is found, the West will probably not like Russia's desired end state or its means to get there.”- @KeirGiles
13/ DELIBERATE POLICY: “From Syria to Salisbury, from Montenegro to MH17, Russian actions cause astonishment and sometimes revulsion in the West. But still many in the West wish to believe that they are isolated incidents or accidents, not reflections of deliberate state policy.”
14/ BLUE SKIES: “To look for a better Russia is to look far, far into the future. Optimism of that kind is perennial and human, but should be contained for the sake of a better chance at a functional relationship with the Russia that exists—rather than the one we would hope for.”
15/ GRIM REALITY CHECK: “It is dangerous to assume that political change in Russia is desirable because it will necessarily be an improvement. Russia's current behaviour towards other countries and its own citizens is reprehensible.”- @KeirGiles
16/ A PERIOD OF UNPRECEDENTED LIBERALISM: “By historical standards, Russia is still in a period of unprecedented liberalism. You may be appalled by current Russian state behaviour at home and abroad.”
17/: “This is a country where industrial-scale deportation, enslavement and murder of its own citizens and those of occupied countries is the norm through history. It would be hard for things in Russia to get better, but IT WOULD BE VERY EASY FOR THEM TO GET FAR, FAR WORSE.”-KG
: “This is a country where industrial-scale deportation, enslavement and murder of its own citizens and those of occupied countries is the norm through history. It would be hard for things in Russia to get better, but IT WOULD BE VERY EASY FOR THEM TO GET FAR, FAR WORSE.”-KG
18/ PROBE AND PROVOKE: “A key aspect of Russia’s approach is to probe and provoke adversaries, but not enough to cause military escalation.”- @KeirGiles
19/ STEADY DRUMBEAT: “This includes the steady drumbeat of Russian activity run against NATO allies and partners—at sea, in the air..space, cyber and electromagnetic activities—all intended to probe for vulnerabilities, to test reactions, and to prepare for conflict.”- @KeirGiles
20/ FADES AWAY: “In calmer times, Russia’s shutting down of navigational aids across wide areas of NATO allies would provoke alarm and consternation as an undeniably hostile action; now, it just fades into the background noise.”- @KeirGiles
21/ 
= A TOXIC MIX: “Another ingredient in this toxic mix is the lack of public knowledge of the extent and volume of this hostile activity, which remains largely outside the public consciousness.”- @KeirGiles
= A TOXIC MIX: “Another ingredient in this toxic mix is the lack of public knowledge of the extent and volume of this hostile activity, which remains largely outside the public consciousness.”- @KeirGiles
22/ CONTROLLING THE NARRATIVE: @KeirGiles explains what happens when Russia is allowed to control the narrative—by reiterating a recent air incident as detailed in this thread: https://twitter.com/heidi_cuda/status/1162034638321115141?s=21
23/ DISINFORMATION: “NATO released this information 24 hours after the video became available. And that was 23 hours too late. In the meantime, Western media had almost universally picked up the Russian version only: that NATO had retreated in fear of the mighty Sukhoi fighter.”
24/ INADEQUATE THREAT PERCEPTION: “The lack of transparency over Russia's hostile actions leads to an inadequate perception of threat among Western populations.”
25/ UNDECLARED WAR: “The result is NATO nations continuing to compete with limited authorities, while Russia believes it is already at war.”- @KeirGiles
26/ RUSSIA HAS TO BE CONTAINED: “Overall it is a fundamental mistake to assume that Russia is interested in cooperation or reducing tension, and to assume the West can improve the situation on its own. Instead, Russia has to be contained.”- @KeirGiles
27/ LIMITING ESCALATION: “Containment is a highly loaded term..but at its simplest, the notion of containing Russia is precisely what is needed for maintaining a relationship while limiting the scope for dangerous escalation.”- @KeirGiles
28/ SETTING BOUNDARIES: “In essence, containment in this sense should consist in removing opportunities and incentives for Russia to do damage. Clear signalling and setting of boundaries will assist in deterring, defending, and contesting in a calibrated and measured way.”-KG
29/ 
”Even before dealing with Russia, we need to address our own challenges. There is a critical need for clarity, transparency and honesty. Honesty in facing up to the problem; transparency in admitting it to NATO’s own civil population—and clarity in the messaging to Russia.”
”Even before dealing with Russia, we need to address our own challenges. There is a critical need for clarity, transparency and honesty. Honesty in facing up to the problem; transparency in admitting it to NATO’s own civil population—and clarity in the messaging to Russia.”
30/ ENABLING RUSSIA: “There is no doubt that Russia's long-term prospects remain dire. But in the meantime, Russian power is still a function of Western incoherence, division and disunity.”- @KeirGiles
31/ 
”Recognising that our values and vital interests are not reconcilable with those of Russia, and adjusting for that reality in long-term management of the relationship, is crucial..
“Accepting that..is the biggest contribution we can make to future..peace and stability.”-KG
”Recognising that our values and vital interests are not reconcilable with those of Russia, and adjusting for that reality in long-term management of the relationship, is crucial..“Accepting that..is the biggest contribution we can make to future..peace and stability.”-KG
32/ Q&A: A folo up Q & A with author @KeirGiles
Q1
HSC: What’s the key takeaway.
KG: “Depressingly, the key message is the same as when I spoke to the same meeting in Norway in 2015...”
Q1
HSC: What’s the key takeaway.
KG: “Depressingly, the key message is the same as when I spoke to the same meeting in Norway in 2015...”
33/ Q1 con.
KG: “We have to recognise that never mind Russia and the West not being on the same page when it comes to managing a stable relationship, they are not even in the same library.”
KG: “We have to recognise that never mind Russia and the West not being on the same page when it comes to managing a stable relationship, they are not even in the same library.”
34/ Q1:
KG: “Either address the differences in the relationship or settle in for a long period of confrontation. Papering over the cracks by attempting repeated ‘resets’ without dealing with the fundamental contradictions between the two sides just makes things worse not better”
KG: “Either address the differences in the relationship or settle in for a long period of confrontation. Papering over the cracks by attempting repeated ‘resets’ without dealing with the fundamental contradictions between the two sides just makes things worse not better”
35/ Q2:
HSC: Why is it important to keep hammering these points home.
KG: “We are up against two serious challenges: geopolitical attention deficit disorder, where a lack of institutional memory means hard-earned lessons have to be re-learned the hard way over and over again.”
HSC: Why is it important to keep hammering these points home.
KG: “We are up against two serious challenges: geopolitical attention deficit disorder, where a lack of institutional memory means hard-earned lessons have to be re-learned the hard way over and over again.”
36/ Q2 con.
KG: “...and the persistent delusion (of) incoming Western politicians that they are going to be the one to ‘fix’ the Russia relationship and save us all where all before them have failed. Put the two together and the same basic points have to be repeated constantly.”
KG: “...and the persistent delusion (of) incoming Western politicians that they are going to be the one to ‘fix’ the Russia relationship and save us all where all before them have failed. Put the two together and the same basic points have to be repeated constantly.”
37/ Q3:
HSC: Is it truly possible to have a managed relationship with a country that is at perpetual war both within and without.
KG: “We've done it before.”
HSC: Is it truly possible to have a managed relationship with a country that is at perpetual war both within and without.
KG: “We've done it before.”
38/ Q3 con.
KG: “The period of the late Cold War showed how recognising the true nature and intent of the Kremlin aided, rather than hindered, achieving a stable relationship where boundaries were set and defended.”
KG: “The period of the late Cold War showed how recognising the true nature and intent of the Kremlin aided, rather than hindered, achieving a stable relationship where boundaries were set and defended.”
39/ Q3 con.
KG: “Unfortunately at present the West as a whole is still in the messy and dangerous learning process that preceded that recognition.”
KG: “Unfortunately at present the West as a whole is still in the messy and dangerous learning process that preceded that recognition.”
40/ Q4
HSC: How do we contain this madness.
KG: “Russia is so often called unpredictable...”
HSC: How do we contain this madness.
KG: “Russia is so often called unpredictable...”
41/ Q4 con.
KG: “But if you abandon what the West sees as reason and logic and accept that Moscow proceeds according to its own..internal thought processes and its own perversely distorted view of what drives world events, it becomes easier to make sense of Russia's next moves.”
KG: “But if you abandon what the West sees as reason and logic and accept that Moscow proceeds according to its own..internal thought processes and its own perversely distorted view of what drives world events, it becomes easier to make sense of Russia's next moves.”
42/ Q4 con.
KG: “The first step, as always, is never to say ‘they wouldn't do that, it doesn't make sense’. It doesn't make sense TO YOU: but it is not you that is determining Russian foreign and security policy.”
KG: “The first step, as always, is never to say ‘they wouldn't do that, it doesn't make sense’. It doesn't make sense TO YOU: but it is not you that is determining Russian foreign and security policy.”
43/ Q5:
HSC: There’s a line in ”Doctor Zhivago”: “I wish they'd decide once and for all which gang of hooligans constitutes the government of this country.” Would a regime change help.
KG: “It makes little difference which gang is in charge.”
HSC: There’s a line in ”Doctor Zhivago”: “I wish they'd decide once and for all which gang of hooligans constitutes the government of this country.” Would a regime change help.
KG: “It makes little difference which gang is in charge.”
44/ Q5 con.
KG: “A change of leadership makes no difference if that leadership continues to operate on the basis of Russia's long-standing fixed ideas about how to deal with external and internal challenges...”
KG: “A change of leadership makes no difference if that leadership continues to operate on the basis of Russia's long-standing fixed ideas about how to deal with external and internal challenges...”
45/ Q5 con.
KG: “...and a fixed determination to see threats both at home and abroad where sometimes they simply do not exist.
“As for hope...well there is always hope. But while hoping for the future, it would be critical as well to invest in coping with the present reality.”
KG: “...and a fixed determination to see threats both at home and abroad where sometimes they simply do not exist.
“As for hope...well there is always hope. But while hoping for the future, it would be critical as well to invest in coping with the present reality.”
46/ CODA: Here’s the first thread I wrote on the work of @KeirGiles ... It’s critical. https://twitter.com/heidi_cuda/status/1152989738346807296?s=21
