Quick thread on Brexit and workers rights (will try to keep brief). There has been a lot of discussion about “guaranteeing worker rights” as part of any Brexit deal, but the whole argument has some gaping holes at the centre of it.

Firstly, government white paper on immigration has some deeply worrying parts - particularly this notion of temporary visas for “low-skilled” workers that deny access to public services & limit ability to accrue rights by introducing cool-off periods. See: https://twitter.com/tomashirstecon/status/1075383222173949953?s=20

That is concerning enough, but it is coupled with a direct reduction in “workers rights” in the removal of freedom of movement. This means, for example, if gvmt trade policy shifts domestic industry structure labour is *less able* to move with jobs (see: https://twitter.com/tomashirstecon/status/1046320576774778880?s=20)

Couple the above with a desire to “strike new trade deals around the world” and the pressure that government will be under to demonstrate there was a purpose to Brexit and you have a potential recipe for significant cross-border labour rights arbitrage.

That is b/c unlike the EU, which is big enough to push its standards/regulatory regime as part of its trade negotiations (w the EU model *itself* the prime example of this), the U.K. is unlikely to be able to make similar demands to large trade partners given relative market size

To reiterate a point, hard Brexit proponents appear to want to strip UK citizens of the parts of that arrangement where benefits accrue primarily to labour, & to do so despite clear evidence that growth benefits of additional trade liberalisation are likely to be small.

It doesn’t even need to take the form of a change in domestic labour policy. Loosening regs/standards for imports could potentially have a similar effect on the domestic economy as U.K. producers would either have to match to compete or lower costs elsewhere (e.g. labour).

That implies measures such as National Minimum Wage, which has to date had a negligible impact on employment levels contrary to prior concerns, cld hve a lower bite point than wld have done in a Remain counterfactual (though it may still be some way above where it currently sits)

Anyway, much of the above depends on the scope of ongoing alignment with the EU and the policy preferences of those directing the process. But seems worthy of considering in the context of where we are right now.

Fin. (Never do >10 tweets in a thread)