Read on Twitter
Putin wants Ukraine as the historic Russian breadbasket.
China SOE leases huge tracts of eastern Russia for farming.
Iran has been sanctioned into a perilous state esp with inflation.
Seriously good plan etc but everyone here still needs USD to buy food.
China SOE leases huge tracts of eastern Russia for farming.
Iran has been sanctioned into a perilous state esp with inflation.
Seriously good plan etc but everyone here still needs USD to buy food.
Beijing's aspiration to be a superpower runs aground, inter alia, on various reefs but at least one is that it cannot buy food in its own currency. Dependence on earning USD to feed yourself makes you a very large Venezuela.
The Sinologists on Twitter are often quite good but there is still this bonkers school stuck in the BRIC era that believes the CCP/Xi etal have some 20 dimensional chess/Sun Tzu plan when they are just Leninists, haunted by Lin Biao, trying to bluff & bully their way to tomorrow
For all of the American brokens go on here, hyperventilating about Trump and what have you, the US is a very old country, constitutionally, and it chuggs along regardless of who is in power. Putin + Xi live in fear of losing power & losing their people-why this is dangerous
In addition to Xi, Putin, Iran's Mullahs, one should add Erdogan in Turkey to the above as well...Not every world leader who has a false flag coup to gut his senior military ranks & replace them with hack loyalists....There is a pattern here....
Theory of Nicholas Spykman (1893–1943) of Eurasia & Rimland was far-sighted albeit could not anticipate how broad the coalition would array against a unified and Leninist PRC state in due course. Also that this would still in 2019 be a USD world & food/energy supply a key driver.
Finally!....NATO has to lift its game and note that Iran is the junior partner. Also, an example of how everyone now wants to join in the #DragonBear thread....
Along with #DragonBear we also need something for the Iranian axis https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1142777077222875137
Any state that could acquire Greenland would be mad not to do so. Securing the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap was one of the key NATO tasks in the Cold War and would have been the precondition for any Nth American reinforcement of NATO in case of a Soviet move into Germany
Addition to my ongoing #DragonBear and Safavid-Ottoman thread.... #Realpolitik https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/821205125024731136
My one criticism is that China lives in a USD world where it has to buy its food & energy in USD. China also has to cope not just with the US but with Japan, India, Sth Korea, Australia, Singapore, all wanting to contain China. Plus #DragonBear https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1163355436881342464
The Russian side of #DragonBear https://twitter.com/GrayConnolly/status/1019582925292036096
Australia joining the US-UK coalition to secure the Gulf - also operations Australia has conducted since GONZO Station and the first Gulf War in 1990-1991
#DragonBear #Iran https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1163968455680282625
#DragonBear #Iran https://twitter.com/BevanShields/status/1163968455680282625
The People’s Liberation Army is one of seven forces invited to join “Tsentr – 2019” (Centre-2019), a series of war games on September 16-21, the Russian defence ministry said on Tuesday. #DragonBear https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3023790/china-join-russia-war-games-beijings-ties-washington-unravel
China Promises Further Military Cooperation With Russia
#DragonBear https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-promises-further-military-cooperation-with-russia-11563973937
#DragonBear https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-promises-further-military-cooperation-with-russia-11563973937
YES => "Should China and Russia's developing military alliance in north Asia worry Australia?" #DragonBear https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-31/china-and-russia-have-a-growing-military-alliance/11348718
I will repeat this: China lives in a USD world where China has to buy food and its energy in USD. For all the criticism/brokenness here re Trump, Trump and his ursine instincts get that this reality squeezes China & Xi esp as winter approaches. #DragonBear
I wrote this in April 2018 on the Syrian War and noted this re Russia-China and, also, Iran #DragonBear
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-syrian-war.html
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-syrian-war.html
I also wrote this in July 2018 on the "The Sources Of Russian Conduct" and the quandry #DragonBear poses, especially when allied to Iran, for an insecure West
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/sources-of-russian-conduct.html
http://strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/sources-of-russian-conduct.html
This is very good on the all too little know1971 Lin Biao affair (defection to the USSR? military coup against Mao?) which has affected China's communist leadership and spurred their close control of the PLA/security apparatus ever since #DragonBear https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/2017634/shock-waves-lin-biao-plane-crash-still-echo-lead-chinese-communist-party
"Mao and the Party decided that the military's time was up. Lin was at best a stumbling block and at worst a threat. In September 1971, Lin tried to save himself — possibly by a preemptive strike and certainly by a preemptive flight"
#DragonBear https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/cautionary-tale-chinas-lin-biao
#DragonBear https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/cautionary-tale-chinas-lin-biao
Henry Kissinger’s “White House Years” account of Sino-Soviet tensions in 1969 & Soviet inquiries as to the US position should the Soviets attack China over the Ussuri River border clashes
#DragonBear
#DragonBear
This is very interesting on Russian policy according to the “Primakov Doctrine” - Russia allying with other powers ala #DragonBear to frustrate the US/West & Allies https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254
Poland's "Fort Trump" deployments => “We have agreed on six locations, we talked about a seventh location,” Blaszczak said at a joint news conference with U.S. national security adviser John Bolton
#DragonBear https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-usa-military/warsaw-washington-agree-on-locations-for-new-u-s-troops-in-poland-idUSKCN1VK0TB
#DragonBear https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-usa-military/warsaw-washington-agree-on-locations-for-new-u-s-troops-in-poland-idUSKCN1VK0TB
China is creating a "white list" for visas - business and academic figures will be admitted if not critical of China. The author's muppetish surprise that a regime that brutalises Uighur Muslims & Hong Kong would do this to him is astonishing
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/05/what-china-experts-have-do-get-beijings-visa-whitelist/?noredirect=on
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/05/what-china-experts-have-do-get-beijings-visa-whitelist/?noredirect=on
Trump decoupling the US from Chinese supply chains will do significant damage to a China still living in a USD world and which needs to buy food & energy in USD. Will solidify Iran-Russia-China quasi barter/Comecon. #DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/06/tariffs-are-no-longer-chinas-biggest-problem-in-the-trade-war.html
Excellent @andrewmichta here:
"China’s expanding economic, military, and political reach across the globe, assisted by Russia’s deepening geostrategic revisionism, should provide the foundation of a shared NATO threat assessment going forward"
#DragonBear https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/09/11/as-china-surges-europe-is-on-the-menu/
"China’s expanding economic, military, and political reach across the globe, assisted by Russia’s deepening geostrategic revisionism, should provide the foundation of a shared NATO threat assessment going forward"
#DragonBear https://www.the-american-interest.com/2019/09/11/as-china-surges-europe-is-on-the-menu/
USD is world's reserve currency-only alternative is gold-because most are confident USA will be around in 100+ years time vs China, Russia, etal will probably be 'unsettled'. For all the tech guff here, people still need to - as I say often - "eat & heat" ie USD buys #DragonBear
Would add as an aisde to #DragonBear that Iran needs USD to buy food as well. Iran does not want barter to buy cheap trinkets from China (Russian weaponry is different but Russia does not need Iran's energy). The last Shah fell when Bazzaris turned against him over food/inflation
2017 analysis that remains highly relevant=> "The common thread running through the paper is the challenge posed by Russia’s jammers and other electronic warfare tools." #DragonBear https://www.politico.eu/article/us-army-unprepared-to-deal-with-russia-in-europe/
China reeling as recession fears mount, say economists
#DragonBear https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/22/china-reeling-recession-fears-mount-say-economists/
#DragonBear https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/22/china-reeling-recession-fears-mount-say-economists/
"Next month, the Russian navy plans to open a maintenance shop in Tartus that will further bolster the base's capability." #DragonBear https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/09/27/naval-base-in-syria-anchors-russia-to-mediterranean/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2009.27.19&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Military%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
This is very good on why Ukraine is a hot mess & notes that the Germans and French (wisely) have no appetite for NATO assuming security responsibilities for Ukraine and Georgia #DragonBear https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/26/its-high-time-to-reassess-the-united-states-relationship-with-ukraine/
Putin speaking to the Valdai club always interesting but caution that Russia ever actually building this missile defence system for China on the scale necessary would almost certainly require China to pay most/all in USD
#DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/04/russia-and-china-to-build-a-missile-defense-system-putin-says.html
#DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/10/04/russia-and-china-to-build-a-missile-defense-system-putin-says.html
"For Beijing, Russia’s skilled engineers and mathematicians are a valuable resource for tech and defense industry giants that are hungry for talent and faced with increasingly unfavorable conditions in the United States and Europe"
#DragonBear https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/10/china-russia-are-turning-each-other-tech-help-west-limits-access/160364/?oref=d-topstory
#DragonBear https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/10/china-russia-are-turning-each-other-tech-help-west-limits-access/160364/?oref=d-topstory
China also leases large tracts of Russian agricultural land => "More critically, China appears increasingly intent on populating Russia's Far East with Chinese migrants, which has raised deep-seated Russian fears of outright Chinese annexation" #DragonBear https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/are-russia-and-china-entente-cordiale-21st-century-military-cooperation
"[T]he determination of Chinese and Russian leaders to develop indigenous replacements for foreign, particularly American, technologies, from chips to operating systems, has provided further motivation for cooperation."
#DragonBear https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-sino-russian-high-tech-partnership-emerges-as-us-tensions-mount/
#DragonBear https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-sino-russian-high-tech-partnership-emerges-as-us-tensions-mount/
What is missed by many is that China, Russia, and Iran, collaborate for various reasons but also their existence as continental states on the geopolitical world island allows them to overcome Allied dominance of sea & air. Not just ports but actual rail and road #DragonBear
French President Macron saying the quiet part out loud here
"With more members than ever and facing much more complex security challenges, Nato seems in Mr Macron's view to no longer be fit for purpose."
#DragonBear https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50335257
"With more members than ever and facing much more complex security challenges, Nato seems in Mr Macron's view to no longer be fit for purpose."
#DragonBear https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50335257
This is silly. If NATO did not exist, it would have to be invented. The real problem here lies in the French (who never like anything they cannot lead) and much of the German political class being for hire by the Russians #DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/08/emmanuel-macron-is-right-nato-is-over/
I will repeat this: China lives in a USD world where China has to buy food & energy in USD. For all the criticism/brokenness here re Trump, Trump's ursine instincts get this fundamental reality squeezes China & Xi esp as winter approaches.
#DragonBear https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1197457276778487808
#DragonBear https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1197457276778487808
Fiona Hill in 2015 opposed arms for Ukraine, rightly, and her arguments made good sense then and now: "In Putin’s view, the United States, the European Union and NATO have launched an economic and proxy war in Ukraine to weaken Russia..."
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/giving-weapons-to-ukraine-could-goad-putin-into-a-regional-war/2015/02/05/ec2e9680-abf5-11e4-ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html
#DragonBear https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/giving-weapons-to-ukraine-could-goad-putin-into-a-regional-war/2015/02/05/ec2e9680-abf5-11e4-ad71-7b9eba0f87d6_story.html
For all the criticism of Macron, his position is an entirely realistic one in 2019: what is NATO doing tossing out security guarantees to nations that NATO will likely never honour? Whither #DragonBear ? https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/23/world/europe/nato-france-germany.html
Are Russia and China the best of friends now? It’s complicated, analysts say #DragonBear https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/russia-and-chinas-relationship--how-deep-does-it-go.html
Russia, China Expected to Equip Iran With Fighters and Tanks When Arms Embargo Lifts #DragonBear https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/11/19/russia-china-expected-equip-iran-fighters-and-tanks-when-arms-embargo-lifts.html
Research by the Royal United Services Institute @RUSI_org found that the Army, as well as NATO allies, has a "critical shortage" of artillery and ammunition
#DragonBear https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50567271
#DragonBear https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50567271
Strongly recommend reading this succinct and well-argued @ASPI_org analysis by Emeritus Professor Paul Dibb on "How the geopolitical partnership between China and Russia threatens the West"
#DragonBear http://www.aspi.org.au/report/how-geopolitical-partnership-between-china-and-russia-threatens-west
#DragonBear http://www.aspi.org.au/report/how-geopolitical-partnership-between-china-and-russia-threatens-west
Too much analysis here wrongly emphasises personalities & ignores longstanding geopolitical realities: if Trump, Putin, Xi, Khamenei, Erdogan etal all disappeared tomorrow, all the same challenges and conflicts would remain. #DragonBear #NATO #NATO70
The Russians are always ready to play the energy weapon (and hold much of Europe hostage) but European NATO is also happy, as here with Merkel, to be Gazprom's hostage via Nord Stream 2. Energy = Influence (Merkel esp de-nuked Germany)
#DragonBear #NATO https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-and-vladmir-putin-push-ahead-with-pipeline/a-51968258
#DragonBear #NATO https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-and-vladmir-putin-push-ahead-with-pipeline/a-51968258
Very good piece by @GlendaKorporaal on the fallout from Taiwan's recent election & the challenge posed by Taiwan's successful constitutional democracy to the PRC (esp amid HKG) and the 'One China' policy (which looks simply unreal in 2020)
#DragonBear https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/tsai-ingwens-election-win-in-taiwan-set-to-poke-the-chinese-bear/news-story/ba04e246add7603e529731782d89075f
#DragonBear https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/tsai-ingwens-election-win-in-taiwan-set-to-poke-the-chinese-bear/news-story/ba04e246add7603e529731782d89075f
Very good piece on Taiwan’s future and China’s position vis a vis Taiwan and Hong Kong - some things are true even when written by George Will #DragonBear
Finally, even the "whither the liberal international order?" muppetocracy of the #MSC2020 is realising, albeit a decade too late, that everything is #DragonBear now https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1228413065575698433
"Russia to ban entry of Chinese nationals to halt virus"
Even the longer term ambitions of #DragonBear must give way to the immediate threat posed by #Coronavirus - the aggressive Russian response is to be noted versus Western timidity https://abcn.ws/2uNkeqm
Even the longer term ambitions of #DragonBear must give way to the immediate threat posed by #Coronavirus - the aggressive Russian response is to be noted versus Western timidity https://abcn.ws/2uNkeqm
"This move would make Russia the first country in the world to deport Chinese nationals amid the global coronavirus outbreak."
#DragonBear https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-28/russian-entry-ban-on-chinese-nationals-has-some-seeing-red
#DragonBear https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-02-28/russian-entry-ban-on-chinese-nationals-has-some-seeing-red
"Nevertheless, Russia appears to have accepted its role as a junior partner to China. This is in part because China, unlike the United States, is not perceived to represent a threat to Putin’s rule" #DragonBear https://www.brookings.edu/research/russia-and-china-axis-of-revisionists/
Will just observe that where the Russians & Iranians cannot profitably sell oil & gas esp to USD customers, chaos almost always ensues. [This is how the Saudis also helped unintentionally to topple the Shah.] What of the PRC's demand now? #DragonBear https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-08/goldman-warns-oil-could-dip-into-the-20s-as-price-war-begins
Mahan Air is the IRGC's airline that helps Iran's elite circumvent sanctions & connect to China, India, Russia etal. When Mahan goes to and returns from China, it brings more than just luxury goods.... Also #Coronavirus #DragonBear https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-strategic-partnership-with-china-lies-at-root-of-its-coronavirus-outbreak-11583940683
While you should be sceptical always of both CNN & Russian figures, the Russians did close their borders to China on Jan 30 & have a punitive regime for breaking police-imposed isolation (sentence to a RUS prison camp for 1-5 years ie death) #DragonBear https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/europe/putin-coronavirus-russia-intl/index.html
This (Tass!) signal from Moscow suggests the northern summer will see Russia do what it takes to get oil higher...so caveat => "In our opinion, the fair price that allows the market to function, it is now in the range of $45-55 per barrel"
#DragonBear https://tass.com/economy/1136383
#DragonBear https://tass.com/economy/1136383
"An open letter circulating online since last week calls for an emergency, expanded meeting of the Politburo to discuss "Xi's issues" and to decide if he should step down from his leadership of party, government and military."
#DragonBear https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/coronavirus-xijinping-03232020141057.html
#DragonBear https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/coronavirus-xijinping-03232020141057.html
Very good discussion between @vtchakarova & @AlexGabuev on the strategic relationship between Russia and China AKA #DragonBear
Australia is now under a "state-based cyber attack" - anyone who thinks the PRC has some sophisticated strategy when Beijing just arrays a coalition against it is simply deluded.
Beijing's only allies are ex Western politicians it buys.
#DragonBear https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-australia-live-news-victoria-to-ease-restrictions-despite-new-infections/news-story/cc396337362098f6ca9842a8f7c0bdec?keyevent=9.20am
Beijing's only allies are ex Western politicians it buys.
#DragonBear https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-australia-live-news-victoria-to-ease-restrictions-despite-new-infections/news-story/cc396337362098f6ca9842a8f7c0bdec?keyevent=9.20am
Ping @TheresaAFallon 
the Chinese strategy seems to be make as many enemies as possible
the Chinese strategy seems to be make as many enemies as possible
