THREAD> 1/ I decided to spend some time running the numbers using a mix of several known as well as some hypothetical fundamental inputs for Bitcoin to come up with a demo as to how $btc could easily achieve the six figure valuation and beyond. ill explain what's behind it here.

2/ The fundamental inputs in the model are;
- Bitcoin Supply:
- Rate of adoption: I have used the rate at which the population adopted the net
- Total global financial transactions: There are c. 1bn transactions / Day
- Total Global Debt: $247tn

3/ Bitcoin Supply [21m] & Transactions observation:

We know that interest in Bitcoin has been more than sufficient to offset the known inflationary impact & we have in fact seen price appreciation.

New supply & Transactions are positively correlated with price.

4/ Rate of adoption

I use data from the early days of the internet (% adopted) mixed with known daily transactions to work out where BTC is comparatively:

BTC does c.300k transactions daily
There are ~1bn global transactions
BTC is doing c. 0.03% relatively of total share.

5/ Mixing two data sources, I was able to ascertain that 0.03% of the world was online back in 1991 after around 10 years of groundwork to get there (!!).

We can use the adoption curve of the net as a proxy to extrapolate BTC's S-Curve if it were to advance in the same way.

6/ Notice how the internet’s s curve showed adoption happening at varying rates – it was not uniform.

There are period of growing pains (>>scaling debate)

and

periods of higher growth / tech advancement (>>lightening network facilitating network effect)

7/ You may suggest that the rate of adoption for Bitcoin is unrealistic but in 1991 the idea of sending letters electronically when there was a fully functioning mail system seemed completely bizarre.

It was difficult to use and hard to understand why needed for the layman

https://twitter.com/filbfilb/status/1086751774969610241