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I've been doing some research into fighters that have missed weight, dating back to the start of early weigh-ins (UFC 199), this is a thread of my findings, and my interpretation of the numbers:
Overall, there have been 47 instances of a fighter missing weight and going on to fight.
They are 27-20 -- 57.4% win percentage.
Without added context, that doesn't tell us much though. A heavy favorite missing and still winning may not have anything to do with weight
They are 27-20 -- 57.4% win percentage.
Without added context, that doesn't tell us much though. A heavy favorite missing and still winning may not have anything to do with weight
The best approximation available to us for how likely a fighter is to win is their closing betting odds. For this I've used lines from 5dimes.
Those fighters have an implied win probability of 51.0% based on their closing lines. So they have out-performed expectation by 6.4%
Those fighters have an implied win probability of 51.0% based on their closing lines. So they have out-performed expectation by 6.4%
The difference is more pronounced with favorites:
Fav implied win%: 64.5%
Fav actual win%: 76%
Fav Difference: +11.5%
Dog implied win%: 35.7%
Dog actual win%: 36.4%
Dog Difference: +0.7%
Fav implied win%: 64.5%
Fav actual win%: 76%
Fav Difference: +11.5%
Dog implied win%: 35.7%
Dog actual win%: 36.4%
Dog Difference: +0.7%
Books also seem to be really, really good at figuring out when a fighter's miss is concerning.
Looking at the difference between odds the day before weigh-ins and closing odds:
Looking at the difference between odds the day before weigh-ins and closing odds:
When the odds move to imply a higher win probability:
Implied win%: 59.1%
Actual win%: 78.6%
Difference: 19.5%
Lower:
Implied win%: 48.2%
Actual win%: 53.6%
Difference: 5.4%
Implied win%: 59.1%
Actual win%: 78.6%
Difference: 19.5%
Lower:
Implied win%: 48.2%
Actual win%: 53.6%
Difference: 5.4%
Does it matter how badly a fighter misses?
Fighters who missed by at least 3% of their target weight
Implied win%: 55.6%
Actual win%: 50.0%
Difference: -5.6%
Missed by <3%:
Implied win%: 50.1%
Actual win%: 59.0%
Difference: +8.9%
Fighters who missed by at least 3% of their target weight
Implied win%: 55.6%
Actual win%: 50.0%
Difference: -5.6%
Missed by <3%:
Implied win%: 50.1%
Actual win%: 59.0%
Difference: +8.9%
Keep in mind, these are all relatively small sample sizes, but the consistency and magnitude of the results over this sample mean it's definitely worth keeping an eye on
cc: @arielhelwani @Jon_Anik @joerogan @jimmysmithmma @JohnGoodenUK @danhardymma @EliasTheodorou @LeslieSmith_GF @DominickCruz @Ealvarezfight @dc_mma @KarynBryant