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Sean T at RCP
SeanTrende
Crazy to think that Thurmond's strategy of throwing the election to the House in 1948 where Dixiecrats could play kingmaker came 10k voters in OH/CA away from working. 1/ I
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I think the correct answer to Paxton's expert's claim is as follows. Most frequentist statistics is dedicated to answering a very specific question: What are the odds of something occurring
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This is what Trump is likely to do, and the reasoning. This is offered descriptively, not normatively (i.e., is vs. ought). It is all being done with an eye to
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If you're going to opine on the Roman Catholic Diocese opinion, do yourself a favor and read the actual per curiam opinion, and not just Gorsuch's (non-binding, solo) concurrence. In
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For those asking, here's deaths: New England 2/ Mid-Atl 3/ East North Central 4/ West North Central 5/ Southern South Atlantic 6/ Northern South Atlantic 7/ East South Central 8/
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My 2c on the "did the models/aggregates really miss" debate: I think we need some clarity on what these things really are. Are they meant to predict elections? Or do
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I've been thinking about this really good @zeynep piece and . . . philosophy of science. 1/https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/ There's an argument in philo
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My hot takes on contemporary Twitter discussions:(1) I think Trump is likely to lose. Maybe 1-in-5 chance he wins(?)(2) I don't think the 1988 example is terribly apposite; that was
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So my Poli Sci 1100 class from Fall '19 will remember -- or should! -- me saying that I thought the arg. in the Title VII cases would have significant
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