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Justin Wolfers
JustinWolfers
In December the U.S. economy lost -140,000 jobs, and THE RECOVERY HAS STALLED JUST LIKE I WARNED.We lost 22 million jobs in Feb & March, then regained half of them,
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Payrolls in November rose a mere +245k. That's the sort of number you might see in a "normal" month, and definitely not what you're hoping for in the snapback from
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Interesting research from a large team of intermediate econ instructors: On average, students learned less during the pandemic-afflicted semester than in prior semesters, with effects sizes of about 0.1-0.2 SD's
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A student told me the following joke…Q: Can you name a mouse that walks on two legs?Me: Mickey Mouse!Q: And can you name a duck that walks on two legs?Me:
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Payrolls +638k in October, and the unemployment rate has fallen by a full percentage point to 6.9% (even as participation rose).A very strong household report, with a weaker (but pretty
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Lemme tell you a little about why I'm not putting much weight on prediction markets this election. The short version is that the main US market, @PredictIt, is structured in a
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Payrolls rose +1.8 million, and the unemployment rate is down from 11.1% to 10.2%.The economy is still in a massive hole, but we're crawling back out. The problem is that
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GDP for Q2 fell by 10%That's bad. Really bad. As in the worst decline in quarterly GDP in recorded U.S. history. Many headlines will say GDP fell 32.9%. What they
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4.8 million jobs returned in June; we're still 15 million in the hole.Unemployment fell to 11.1%, but after accounting for misclassification, it's probably about 1 percentage point higher. So real
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