#Models

THREAD: Dear 'I Don't Believe in Science' Folks:Science is a process of discovery - by which you observe phenomena, hypothesize, then experiment to test your hypotheses. Believing in science is
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Experts are saying the sustained drop in COVID infection rates is *not* because of the vaccines, but I think they are. The models say that we shouldn't be seeing a
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do we have a lot of models of thomas in trainz? yeah!should we stop people from making models of thomas when they want to? no! i know that there's a
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1. "Mathematical models are a great way to explore questions. They are also a dangerous way to assert answers. Asking models for certainty or consensus is more a sign of
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Offered as an illustration of the limits of "fundamentals"-based election models:The "Time for Change model", as specified here, predicts that Trump will lose the popular vote by ~36 points (not
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1/n Earth system models are not 'just theory'. Models rest on observation and experiments that reach back over centuries. (Yay Tyndall!) Models use to assess solar geoengineering have errors that
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Mental models I used in 2020:https://barnacles.substack.com/p/my-mental-models-2020 1/ Most people don’t deeply understand they're talking about, me included. On the flip side, you can almost always learn from a statement something
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A while back, I had a thread on finding a mentor that I'm pasting below (I deleted a part I got helpful pushback on, more on this if you click
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One thing that I can’t get over: JMac’s “civil disobedience” move reveals the limits of evangelical imagination. Historically Evs have been on the cutting edge of innovation for the purpose
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Many performers of music cannot read it. Okay. There are other, often more intuitive, ways to learn music.Scientists perform stat models. Most scientists cannot read them. This is less OK,
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What if we've been thinking on Machine Learning and Ethics in the wrong way. A thread. Machine Learning is, by its very definition the act of learning from data to
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It's my birthday today and i want to celebrate it a bit!But i can't celebrate it in RL atm cause Covid is a thing and it wouldn't be responsible to
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Ok a bunch of people have been in my replies asking, "Are you arguing that we should stop developing AI?" "Are you saying we should be Luddites?"No, I'm not at
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Re-upping a prior thread on joint work on heterogeneity and #Covid19 spread in light of today's @nytimes piece on heterogeneity and herd immunity thresholds; in which we found a way
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Scientific models vary according to the assumptions made. Compare here the projections for Covid19 deaths under four different epidemiological models (Imperial, LSHTM, Warwick, and Public Health England/Cambridge) and the dynamic
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My thoughts on baselines, a concept that is *extremely* relevant in industry ML but does not exactly translate from academic ML: 1/9 In academic ML projects, my classmates and I
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