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This chart is the clearest representation of the immense damage that emanated from the GFC on the US economy.In the ~60 years following WWII, US real GDP seemed to grow
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Reuters reported o/n that the BoJ is set to loosen its grip on YCC to allow long term yields to rise. JGB futures gapped lower on this.If true, then the
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Given the uniformity surrounding the reflationary trade next year, its worth exploring which pillars of this thesis are most vulnerable. One area of concern is the recent turn in
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The recent surge in US monetary aggregates does not portend to a spike in inflation. It is a red herring, in my view.The growth in broad money reflects primarily deposit
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The synchronized global fiscal impulse (chart 1) looks set to reverse in the coming months. This fiscal drag will prove a significant challenge for the prevailing reflation macro narrative.Steepers, dollar
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Few reasons why the USD may perform better than consensus, even if this is an inflexion point in the global IP cycle: 1/The usd is not beginning this cycle as
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