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Nate Cohn
Nate_Cohn
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern
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The Bloomberg playbook in '18 often involved striking very late. Most of the time, they didn't show their hand until they played it. And why should they? There's plenty of
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I have no idea what Bloomberg will do in the end, but I'll just note that there's not necessarily much reason to assume that this is it.https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1305128039286820864?s=20 The Bloomberg playbook
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Biden maintains a lead in Wisconsin and Trump's three best pick-up opportunities, among likely voters MN: Biden 50, Trump 41NH: Biden 45, Trump 42NV: Biden 46, Trump 42WI: Biden 48,
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I wouldn't call it a flub; it's a ~6 pt error more than 3 weeks out!But it is an interesting questionhttps://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1304530197555838976?s=20 As a general rule, our polls fared quite well
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If we're going to talk about 'shy Trump' voters, it's worth being clear about what we're really talking about. The old version of the theory just doesn't make sense, but
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CBS/YouGov with Biden+1 in GA and Biden+4 in NC continues a bit of a pattern we're seeing from their state polls and their MRP-based battleground tracker: very strong results for
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Random thought: a lopsided Democratic edge in early voting may be a bit of an underrated challenge for pollsters. It's a bit dangerous to have one party lock in its
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Let's talk about what's happening under the hood on some of the poll averages right nowhttps://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1291583616867274755?s=20 RCP is a particularly peculiar case. Yeah, it's a simple polling average, but
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A minor point from afar on the debates I see about the fundamentals after yesterday's Q2 numbers: the problem isn't just that the economic data is out of sample, it's
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Are the polls understating the number of Republicans?Probably not.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/upshot/polls-political-party-republicans.html In Times/Siena polling last month, registered Republicans were 12 percent likelier to respond
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Trump's lead among white voters has all but vanished. Anything like it threatens longstanding GOP structural advantages https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/upshot/biden-polls-demographics.html It's not easy to imagine the consequence
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