I’m dearly hoping govt releases some actual data on the lethality of the new variant.
Holding a press conference to announce this ominous news alongside vague caveats about uncertainty is not a functional way to share this news
Nor was leaking it to journalists ahead of the event
There’s an irony here: @uksciencechief just told us to be a bit wary of the reports coming out of Israel warning abt the efficacy of single dose #COVID19 vaccines.
Why? Because of a lack of data.
Yet here he is making equally significant claims without providing the data.
This episode underlines a deeper problem: a culture of data secrecy in Whitehall & NHS.
There are vast datasets that are never publicly released. Sometimes secrecy is justified to protect privacy.
Rest of the time there’s no justification for it.
This is public data. OUR data.
Ah: good news (well, not “good” exactly):
NERVTAG have released this paper on B117 severity which provides some detail. Seems to be a summary of a number of other papers which presumably have more granular data.
Here’s hoping they will be released too
I should have hat-tipped @fact_covid for that last link
On one hand it’s good that govt released some data on its findings on the lethality of the new variant.
On the other, this table is a data crime of enormous proportions.
Most of these measures are not comparable in the slightest
No context or explanation.
Hard to make sense of…
Broad message such as I can make out: most of these initial studies do show higher lethality
Confidence intervals are big, as you’d expect
2 outliers: Exeter thinks far higher CFR.
One PHE study thinks CFR unchanged, poss even a lower CFR in new variant.
But all v v uncertain
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