musings (not f'ing advice) on defi + adoption + #s

1/ It's January, and a single country (the U.S.) is already floating the idea of a $3t stimulus package

2/ Defi has done about a 27x in TVL over the past year to hit $22b lol

More

2.5/ If the defi trend continues over the next year, we'd be approaching $600b in TVL

3/ Sound big? Consider that there's $18t earning negative yields atm ($600b is just 3.5% of that #) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/world-s-negative-yield-debt-pile-at-18-trillion-for-first-time

4/ Let us be reasonable bulls and say $BTC and $ETH triple this year That alone would take the crypto industry to $2.5t

5/ If the industry hits $2.5t and 20% of that finds its way into DeFi, we're at $500 billion TVL

6/ For defi to grow into the many hundreds of billies (and potentially $1 trilly), we'd need to see a massive upscaling in insurance and fixed yields (this favors the big, battle-hardened platforms btw)

7/ We'll certainly need to see some banks, fintechs and at the very least exchanges move customer funds into defi on their behalf (with approval of course)

8/ Don't assume all this has to happen in the U.S. or <insert your country here>. Will prob happen in more permissive jurisdictions first. If you're thinking too country-centric, you're f'ing yourself

9/ Plenty of risks... like the stupid shit we just saw out of the UK (with banks cutting off crypto-related transactions)... war... horrible new regulations, etc

10/ But everyday, I fee more convinced that defi shall melt faces, abdomens and soles of this year, sers

11/ If you're getting shaken out by pull-backs, buy the best of the best in defi, kill your leverage and let time do the heavy lifting

As I've said before, there is no better time to be alive and aware of what's happening than at this very moment right f'ing now, sers