1/ Crediting avoided deforestation is a fool's errand and gives carbon markets a bad name. Warning, nuance incoming.

tl;dr Stop buying avoided deforestation credits and buy carbon removals instead. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-nature-conservancy-carbon-offsets-trees/

2/ This is not the first time there's been a high profile news story in recent years about avoided deforestation not living up to expectations. @propublica did a piece about how many REDD+ credits are fraudulent. https://features.propublica.org/brazil-carbon-offsets/inconvenient-truth-carbon-credits-dont-work-deforestation-redd-acre-cambodia/

3/ Some definitions: there are carbon offsets and there are carbon removals. Offsets are "avoidance" projects—meaning as a result of the project, there are fewer *new* GHG emissions than there would have been otherwise. Removals are projects that actively pull CO2 out of the air.

4/ The problem with basically all offset/avoidance projects is that it's often difficult/impossible to prove the counterfactual. For avoided deforestation, the question is: "If not for these offset credit payments, would the landowner have sold the land and cut down the trees?"

5/ This is what these credits in the Bloomberg story stand accused of. The landowner said there was no intention of cutting down the trees, and she thought the offsets were paying for incremental improvements to the land. But that's not what the American Carbon Registry claims!

6/ Moreover, avoided deforestation gives carbon markets a bad name.

7/ Carbon avoidance projects will always have the problem of proving a counterfactual. Carbon removal projects don't have this problem! Removal is much more straightforward: 1) set a baseline, 2) measure how much was removed relative to the baseline.

8/ If I were a sustainability director at a corporation looking to offset our emissions, I would put a total ban on purchasing avoided deforestation credits. The evidence of real-world projects just doesn't support the claim that these credits are actually avoiding CO2 emissions.

9/ Summary: avoided deforestation credits do not provide the value that buyers think is there. Carbon removals are a new segment in the carbon market space, and are the single best way to deal with your emissions going into the air.

10/ Lastly this is not necessarily meant to disparage the work TNC does. Nori was a proud participant in the Techstars with TNC accelerator last year, and I'm a big fan of TNC's overall approach and the people there. This is a system design problem, not a people problem.